Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 81920.165147 86465.893472 91008.643374 95885.800426 100970.457158 106111.846615 111700.216748
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 74991.814655 81996.189644 89189.880110 97119.924025 105605.939317 114404.181543 124205.187340
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 68998.792140 77604.347762 86636.632040 96802.424552 107903.736269 119637.013924 132953.960515
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 65605.501889 75531.289926 86137.158819 98277.778269 111754.484270 126219.349846 142881.769590
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 62507.388074 73463.944861 85356.626367 99172.749058 114728.210071 131646.553738 151383.320403
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 59355.618892 71094.245167 84020.376789 99239.925993 116596.049194 135698.055540 158235.015283
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 56465.594959 68835.634600 82639.843320 99095.337704 118081.851678 139204.999317 164382.238036
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 55050.320027 68170.366218 82985.459301 100839.234398 121651.362166 145024.316780 173130.846048
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 53772.114417 67575.432621 83335.454773 102521.547097 125100.334777 150678.310955 181687.622806
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 52103.689199 66428.064927 82960.266567 103285.260807 127424.716266 154999.575619 188690.992048
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 50092.062272 64779.073054 81910.949585 103177.380057 128662.207405 158010.868079 194140.934980
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 48524.577001 63600.010991 81361.599103 103609.662330 130494.242652 161688.628257 200359.503896
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 46775.764601 62161.673014 80476.150659 103629.537576 131846.844459 164838.317234 206026.114163
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 45788.461582 61630.760246 80667.438184 104938.144647 134747.179632 169842.021629 213936.032145
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 44045.678641 60087.681713 79556.706601 104599.262048 135605.691264 172373.928083 218876.432263
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 43337.798513 59824.070563 80006.979314 106168.843072 138789.128610 177712.778940 227222.505277
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 42385.061725 59207.745090 79982.919145 107120.919654 141195.444428 182106.433478 234438.117563
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 41080.954104 58091.049301 79286.467299 107192.371707 142481.053315 185116.346871 239965.568715
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 39745.707510 56889.297695 78441.418831 107038.555725 143455.179458 187724.683969 244994.751913
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 39366.727732 56931.050643 79178.795524 108893.539778 146956.824744 193467.545116 253918.531481
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 38982.551601 56947.332298 79870.031684 110682.649417 150378.379565 199126.712092 262772.127033
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 38206.245622 56410.207406 79818.195423 111494.728140 152547.778106 203226.084284 269701.994854
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 37082.796771 55369.029664 79074.618088 111380.019831 153510.039247 205800.641141 274726.267024